The world's gone VUCA!
I learned a new term recently from a work associate - VUCA.
VUCA stands for Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous!
Apparently its the current buzzword in big business. It's a reflection on the times we live in - for the current state of play.
I know what you’re thinking:
‘Here comes the part where Karim tries to hush up the volatility and persuade me it is somehow an excellent time to buy property.’
Relax – I won’t go there.
VUCA is spot on!
I can’t think of a better way to describe life in London and the UK, mid-2017.
You see, I’d planned to sit down and write this on the back of some much needed clarity following the general election. It was to be our first dose of ‘clarity’ in some time, however having seen the ballot box come and go I am struck by how similar life seems to what went before it!
In the UK we have a hung parliament, which means no one is really in power – yet – and as such we face more uncertainty, with both sides claiming victory.
What does this mean for London property?
Let’s give some context to that question:
One year ago this week the British people voted to leave the EU. For nine months before that referendum the UK was in some kind of economic and societal stasis, waiting for the big day - which many felt turned out badly. This means that since Autumn 2015 we have seen some of the most uncertain political and economic times this country has ever seen. And hot off the back of the great depression, from which a hesitant and uneven recovery had commenced in 2012.
All this has made the wider UK property market more ‘VUCA’ than ever… In fact VUCA is the new normal!
There are, however, insights and chinks to these broader patterns, and most especially worthy of note to the international property investor.
We are seeing deals at 30% under peak prices, even in super-prime areas. Take the difference on the dollar since Trump arrived and you have half price deals on two years ago.
Even if the market were to fall another 5% or so you would still be ahead.
Take into account potential cooperation around Brexit, or a new prime minister, and you could be looking at a great mid-long term investment.
How can we help?
At Homes One we have been guiding our clients through the unfamiliar territory that is London property since 2007. And although this famously unpredictable terrain is more pronounced than ever before, there is an element of ‘business as usual’ in both our internal discussions, and our work on behalf of clients.
We get called first by the agents, and the developers.
It’s how we unearth the gems.
We set up our business in 2007 and navigated the recession. Then we surfed the waves of recovery post-2012, building our business on the back of a customer base to whom the London property market was a potentially vulnerable space. Then we navigated the initial stirrings of Brexit and have continued to prosper, transacting numerous times in the past year at the very top of the market (all £10m+), for European and Saudi clients.
In our core market we have also seen multiple transactions around £2m-£5m in prime residential areas (particularly in the Labour party’s most famous new seat, The Royal Borough of Kensington & Chelsea!).
Best-in-class London property still has wind in its sails - and we expect more buoyant times as we forge ahead.
For your friends:
For July, August and September we are waiving our initial retainer for all new clients.
Please spread the word!
To celebrate the above (even VUCA!) and make a fresh start, we have finally moved into our beautiful new premises in Kensington High Street, at The Pavilion above The Ivy.
It’s just opposite the tube, a stone’s throw from Hyde Park and Whole Foods, and within easy reach of most of our major buy-zones. Drop in for coffee anytime, or lunch or an early supper at The Ivy.
We can catch up and talk about how to navigate VUCA!
We’d love to see you.